Astronomical Forecast for Ramadan 2026
According to the latest policy established by the Ministry of Islamic Affairs regarding the sighting of the moon for Ramadan and Eid, the first day of Ramadan is expected to be February 18th.
Moon Sighting Criteria
Astronomical calculations indicate that on February 17th, the moon will remain on the horizon for less than a minute after sunset in the southernmost islands of the Maldives.
According to Article 5 of the moon-sighting policy:
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If an Islamic country confirms a moon sighting on the 29th of Sha'ban (after sunset) based on astronomical possibility, and that country officially declares the sighting and informs the Maldives, the Maldives will declare the following day as the first of Ramadan.
Geographic Variations
While calculations show the moon will set before the sun in Male' and the northern islands on February 17th, it is confirmed that in the southernmost islands of Addu Atoll, the moon will remain above the horizon for a brief moment (less than a minute) after sunset. However, it is noted that while the moon is above the horizon, the crescent's illuminated surface may not be visible.
Regarding other Islamic nations on February 17th:
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The moon is expected to be above the horizon in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia), Cairo (Egypt), Casablanca (Morocco), and Dakar (Senegal).
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Under the established policy, if any of these countries confirm a sighting and notify the Maldives, the Maldives will also declare the start of the month.
The Significance of the Tradition
Moon sighting is a deeply rooted Islamic custom. Although annual calendars pre-determine the start of Hijri months, Muslims continue the tradition of physically searching for the moon and verifying news of its sighting for Ramadan and Eid. From a religious perspective, this practice is regarded as a Sunnah (tradition of the Prophet).
Scientific Context
The differences in moon visibility across the globe are due to:
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The Earth's rotation on its axis.
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The varying angles and distances of the Sun and Moon relative to Earth.
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The geographical position of the observer (Latitude/Longitude).
On February 17th, the moon lags behind its previous day's position by approximately 47 minutes. This time difference explains why the moon may not be visible in eastern countries but becomes visible in western countries as the day progresses.
Comparative Timings
The astronomical "birth" of the new moon for Ramadan will occur on February 17th at 17:01 (Male' Time).
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Jakarta, Indonesia (106° E): The moon will set 3 minutes before the sun.
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Senegal (17° W): The moon will remain above the horizon for 12 minutes after sunset.
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Addu Atoll, Maldives (73° E): Despite being 33 degrees west of Indonesia, the moon will still be above the horizon briefly.
Expected Start Dates
Because there is no single global agreement on moon sighting, start dates will vary:
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February 18th: Expected start for Maldives and Arab nations.
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February 19th: Expected start for Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and India.
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