How many years until the Maldives is under water?

The Maldives, a breathtaking archipelago of over 1,100 islands, is often called the "canary in the coal mine" for climate change. Because 80% of its land sits less than 1 meter above sea level, the question of its survival is not just academic—it is an existential race against time.

Current scientific projections from 2026 suggest that while the islands won't "vanish" overnight, the timeline for habitability is narrowing.

The Critical Timeline: 2050 to 2100

Most experts agree that the "sinking" of the Maldives will happen in stages, defined by two major milestones:

1. The 2050 Milestone: The Habitability Crisis

By 2050, it is estimated that 80% of the Maldives could become uninhabitable. This doesn't mean the islands will be fully underwater, but rather that the frequency of "wave-driven flooding" will make life impossible.

• Freshwater Contamination: As sea levels rise, saltwater seeps into the underground "lenses" of freshwater that residents rely on for drinking and agriculture.

• Annual Flooding: Projections show that by 2050, extreme flooding events that used to happen once a decade could occur annually, destroying homes and infrastructure.

2. The 2100 Milestone: The Inundation Threat

By the year 2100, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) suggests sea levels could rise by 0.5 to 1 meter.

• If emissions remain high, the Maldives could lose up to 77% to 85% of its land area to the ocean by the end of the century.

   

• In a "business-as-usual" climate scenario, the nation may cease to exist as a sovereign territory in its current form by 2100.

Is the Maldives Sinking or Growing?

Interestingly, recent geomorphological studies have added a layer of nuance. While sea levels are rising, some coral atolls have a natural ability to "grow" by trapping sediment and coral rubble during storms, potentially keeping pace with the water.

However, this natural resilience is threatened by:

• Coral Bleaching: Warming oceans kill the reefs that provide the sediment.

• Human Infrastructure: Sea walls and harbors often block the natural movement of sand that allows islands to "move" or rise.

   

How the Maldives is Fighting Back

The Maldivian government isn't waiting for the tide to come in. They are pioneering some of the world's most ambitious adaptation strategies:

• Artificial Islands: Hulhumalé is a man-made island built 2 meters above sea level (higher than the natural islands) to serve as a "safe haven" for the population.

   

• The Floating City: A project is currently underway to build a floating district near the capital, Malé, designed to rise with the tides and house 20,000 people.

• Land Reclamation: Several islands are being "bulked up" with sand dredged from the seabed to increase their height and surface area.

The Verdict

The Maldives is not expected to be "underwater" in the next 10 or 20 years. However, without drastic global shifts in carbon emissions, the country faces a habitability crisis by 2050 and a high risk of total submergence by 2100.